‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Stock.

The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the hardest struck: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most restaurants run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are switching to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, local news say up to a fifth of hotels and restaurants are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their fuel reserves have depleted with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no other dishes - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are rushing to adjust. "Food options are being cut, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a surge in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Official Position

Yet, the government states there is no shortage.

India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and spokespersons say stocks are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.

Roughly a majority of India's LPG is imported, and about the vast majority of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the hostilities.

The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Some panic booking and accumulation has been caused by rumors. The normal delivery cycle for household cylinders remains about under three days," says a government spokesperson.

Growing Panic

Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of scooters outside a gas outlet. "Anxiety is palpable," the text reads.

According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be exaggerated.

India imports almost all of its petroleum. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a industry commentator.

Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The primary concern is cooking gas, analysts say.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.

Refineries can adjust processes to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through alternative sourcing. Processed petroleum stocks remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the key factor to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the concern on the ground is not just tight supply but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.

An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.

"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold at a premium."

For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.