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Amid the immense confusion following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday marked its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another state and seize its president – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.