A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
