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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet the current competition is distinctly different. The group of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and recent strugglers improving in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still