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Only two days prior to the New York mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, but block by block. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that because they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the system every few minutes! I felt a little nervous initially: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of ballots that came in later and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible in which yesterday went somewhat badly for him, where the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner added 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump last year backed Zohran now. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial opposition group, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over half. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still probably 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it because then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump area. That really was unexpected. The independent held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I think there was significant tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened before the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and homeowners supported Cuomo. So there existed a little resistance. But no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Similarly in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly supportive. So I don’t know if there were major surprises here, but he did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that key political leaders from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – people will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in America can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.